The avian flu outbreak is driving a dual crisis: soaring egg prices and an escalating threat to human health. The ongoing spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has devastated poultry flocks across the country, pushing egg prices to record highs–an issue further exacerbated by inflation and persistent supply chain disruptions.
With Easter approaching, the timing of this dual crisis couldn’t be worse.
According to a recent analysis by poultry specialists from the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Mississippi State University, and Tennessee State University, the average price of a dozen Grade A large eggs increased by 37% in 2024, significantly outpacing overall food price inflation.
In January 2025, prices continued to climb, increasing by over 22%. The USDA predicts an additional 20.3% increase in egg prices in 2025. Some analysts forecast prices could reach nearly $10 a dozen within the next year.
The HPAI outbreak, which began in February 2022, has affected over 156 million birds nationwide. The virus has been detected in all 50 states, impacting both commercial and backyard flocks. The massive losses of egg-laying hens, particularly in large commercial operations, have created a significant egg shortage, driving prices upward.
“Lost hens can be replaced,” the report states, “but it can’t be done overnight.” The process of hatching chicks and raising them to egg-laying maturity takes approximately six months. Therefore, hens lost in January 2025 won’t be replaced until July or August at the earliest, suggesting high prices throughout the remainder of the year. The report also warns that the HPAI outbreak continues, and further losses are expected, potentially prolonging the price surge.
The steep climb in egg prices have led some grocery stores to implement purchase limits and promotional changes. Even restaurants are feeling the pinch. Waffle House, known for its egg-heavy menu, recently added a 50-cent surcharge per egg to customer orders. The report concludes with a stark warning: consumers should expect elevated egg prices to persist throughout 2025 and potentially beyond. The ongoing HPAI outbreak remains the dominant factor, and until the virus is contained and lost flocks are replaced, the egg market will likely remain volatile.